The March temperature outlook favors well above average temperatures on a line from central Montana southeastward through eastern Texas and all locations eastward. Since computer models are in good agreement for it to strengthen and propagate eastward across the Maritime continent during the first half of March, MJO impacts also played a role in the March Outlooks. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-a conjoined area of heavy rains and clear, calm skies that travel the tropics together as a couplet-remained active, with its heavy rains located over the Indian Ocean at the end of February. Therefore, it was again considered as the dominant teleconnection for the March outlooks. Other tools that forecasters examined this month were longer-range forecast models such as the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2), and products derived from these models.Įl Niño began to weaken during February across the tropical Pacific as expected, but despite weakening, it was still categorized as strong, with impacts to the global climate likely continuing for the next few months. The updated outlooks were produced considering the Week 1 forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), and CPC’s own Week 2 and Week 3-4 outlooks. More details about interpreting the outlooks can be found here. Also, remember that the colors on the temperature and precipitation outlook maps only provide information about the most likely outcome, but other outcomes are still possible, although less likely to occur. I’ll also examine the current state of drought, how it changed during the prior month and winter, and how CPC expects drought to change during March. For more details on how to interpret these maps, read our explainer Understanding NOAA's monthly climate outlooks.īelow, I’ll provide more detail about the outlooks and discuss the basis for them. Much higher or much lower than average means "in the upper or lower third" of March precipitation amounts from 1991-2020. White areas mean that there are equal chances for a wet, dry, or near-average March. Darker colors mean higher chances, not more extreme precipitation departures. The precipitation outlook for March 2024, showing where the average precipitation (rain and snow) is favored to be much higher than average (greens), near average (gray), or much lower than average (browns). The precipitation outlook favors well above average precipitation (rain and/or snow) across large parts of the western, central, and eastern parts of the country, with well below average precipitation only favored in small parts of the Upper Midwest and Southern Plains. The temperature outlook favors well above normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern parts of the nation, with well below average temperatures favored in California and parts of the Southwest. On February 29, CPC released its updated monthly climate outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought across the United States for March 2024. For more details on how to interpret these maps, read our explainer Understanding NOAA's monthly climate outlooks. Much warmer or much cooler than average means "in the upper or lower third" of March temperatures from 1991-2020. White areas mean that there are equal chances for a warm, cool, or near-average March. Darker colors mean higher chances, not more extreme temperatures. The temperature outlook for March 2024, showing where the average temperature is favored to be much warmer than average (orange and red), near average (gray), or much cooler than average (blues).
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